Which menu item has historically cushioned input cost shocks better behind the bar: cappuccino or cold brew? When arabica futures hovered near $2.40/lb and whole milk costs jumped about 30% in 2021–22, my models showed cappuccinos holding gross margin better due to lower coffee dose and high perceived value per ounce — does that match what you saw at the register?
But we saw the same in 2021–22 when arabica hovered near $2.40 and milk was up about 30% — — cappuccinos held up because of the ‘lower coffee dose’ plus foam masking shrink, while cold brew got hit by concentrate yield loss and ice dilution. One tweak that helped was standardizing capp to 8 oz with a 17 g dose and putting the alt‑milk upcharge only on iced drinks. Do your models count brew loss and kegging as COGS, and have you benchmarked against ICE C here: Coffee C Futures?
2021–22: cappuccinos held; we saved cold brew margin by standardizing 200g ice, @diane_reed33.
We protected margin by pitcher-weighing 115 g milk for the small cap and fixing espresso yield at about 31 g, then quietly moving that drink to a 5.5 oz cup; @theodore_r22 did a brief “market adjust” on iced do more for your mix than a size trim?